As most of you know, I have a bachelors degree in psychology, otherwise known as the science of the human mind. I was drawn to it because it is the only thing that has ever made sense to me. While some scoff at the uselessness of this degree without a masters, psychology is the only thing I learned in my 17 years of schooling (other than reading) that I use on a daily basis. Statistics and research makes sense to me. The knowledge of probability that someone will react a certain way when presented a variable makes me feel in control. I analyze emotions. I use conditioning to train my dog. I educate friends and family about the factors that play a part in someone’s behaviors, ie mental health, personality, stats on trauma, etc.
Psychological statistics and research drive almost everything we see and do on a daily basis, and most people don’t even know it. In the most simplest form, psychology is the way people feel and react as individuals. It’s a beautiful puzzle I could discuss and look at all day. (for the record, I hate math, which is why I just read the research instead of conducting it.)
My love for psychology also stems from my love of human kind in general. We are pretty cool in terms of how we function. I wrote my previous blog post feeling very inspired and hopeful about how we could function as a society during this time. In a time that is terrifying and unknown, sticking together helps see us through. That’s been proven over and over again. I still and will always believe that. But what I’m growing tired of are the statistics constantly blazing my timelines and news reports to justify unsafe conditions.
This is where analyzing statistics gets tricky. In elementary school, we’re taught the mean or average, right? And normally we think “majority rules”, right? That’s how we determine validity in voting, in test scores, and other day to day things. But, scientifically, that’s not always the correct way to determine validity. I won’t go into standard deviations and bell curves all that jazz, but just know it’s not how scientist determine validity, okay? This causes great confusion when discussing statistics of a large population.
People reading statistics with the belief that small percentages are equal to small numbers causes a lot of misconstrued information. For example, 1% seems small, until it is you receiving 1% of a hundred million dollars and you realize that’s one million dollars. Small percentage, but large amount. You get what I’m saying. I’m now learning that the belief that small percentages equal small numbers GREATLY impacts societies view of the severity of a pandemic.
The most concerning statement I saw shared this week was a Facebook post stating : “We cannot shut down our nation for a virus with a 97% survival rate.”
On its face, yes. This makes total sense. As a culture, yes. Shutting down our nation can and has had a dramatic impact on our “normal”. COVID-19 has singlehandedly ruined what we believed was stable in order to slow the death of 3% of our population. “Only” 3% of people will lose their life, 97% of people will be fine, so we should go back to normal... right?
Well... Yes and no, depending on where your heart is. Let’s break down these numbers. Think of it this way. On a individual human level, that is 3% of Americans that will no longer be here to be apart of our culture. Not 3% of elderly, not 3% of immune compromised, not 3% of those not social distancing. 3% of the total of America’s population. The scarier part? 3% is roughly 10,000,000 people on a national level. That is roughly 200,000,000 people worldwide.
To make it more personal, 3% of my 1,000 Facebook friends is 30. Theoretically, 30 people that I know personally (or as digital acquaintances at the least) would die from COVID-19 without social distancing. My Facebook and personal life is flooded with grief and sorrow when one person I know has passed. Can you fathom 30 people you know losing their life because you did nothing to protect them? Within months, if not weeks?
For those of you who haven’t heard, all two of you on the planet, the goal of social distancing is to lower the 10,000,000 into roughly 200,000 while we wait for a vaccine. That is FIFTY TIMES more individual Americans SURVIVING. The percentage would be brought down to .061% fatalities if we succeeded. 24 of my 30 Facebook friends who would have previously died without social distancing would survive.
But also keep in mind, that 3% is just for fatalities. Not for those who are sick and/or need hospitalization and recover. Many more people are sick than are dying, which would still cause a halt in our economy, due to lack or workers. More importantly than that, several thousands of people have the virus, and never see symptoms. They are spreading with out ever knowing.
Seem like a bigger deal now? 10 million Americans that we want to give up on because it’s inconvenient. 200 million people globally that just don’t matter, as long as we get our money and do as we please, right? I don’t believe this is how anyone truly feels, but they are driven by their own greed and desire for normalcy. Good people will say horrible things when money is being tampered with. Our privileged egos are being tested.
But imagine if you were presented with this decision. “If you go to work, 30 of your Facebook friends will most likely die. If you just stay home, there is a probability that 6 will die.” I will not say “only” because that is still a scary number. It is still tragic. It is still heartbreaking. Because the thing with probability is that it’s random. You don’t get to choose which 30 or which 6. Just like with any statistic, that 3% doesn’t seem real until if affects you personally.
This is also where I scream *correlation does not mean causation*. That is the fundamental research rule. Just because ice cream sales go up with crime rates, it does not mean crime rates make ice cream sales go up. It just means they both likely happen at the same time, during the summer months. Just because there is a correlation with people staying home and less people getting sick, it does not mean only .061% of people will get sick. It could be less, it could be more. It’s a little more completed medically, and yes, staying home prevents the spread, but it does not prevent the ones on the front lines from being sick and it does not prevent the rebels from going out in public anyway. Let’s call the numbers what they are: estimates. Estimates are not definite, whether positively or negatively.
There’s obviously a flip side to this. With the shutting down of every nonessential public place possible, 10 million people have filed for unemployment. I am one of those people. It is scary. It is nerve wracking. It has caused daily panic attacks. We are now faced with the question of “do you want to risk 10 million people being without income or 10 million people losing their lives?” It sounds like a line from a Saw movie, but if we really want to base everything on statistics now, it’s where we’re at. But I know wholeheartedly what I would pick, and that I personally will be okay. And quite frankly, the burden of late bills is a whole lot less than the burden I would have of giving someone who cannot fight COVID-19.
But a lot of the other 10 million can’t afford to not have income for even a week. My house hold is young, lower middle class, with no children. I am privileged to be able to pay my mortgage and various bills this month. I cannot imagine how the single parents, the hourly paid, pay check to pay check Americans are feeling. It is heart-wrenching. Which in turn, churns my stomach when people shout “we’re all in this together” with no action. “Faith without works is dead”, ya feel me?
At this point in time, if you have a steady income at all, you are luckier than 10 million Americans. Not 10 million who are “lazy and won’t work”. 10 million who had stable jobs, lost them, and cannot work due to lack of job openings. They are me. Whether it’s monetary, physical donations, a whole lot of prayer, or productive inspiring words, help your fellow humans.
Do not even get me started on the spike in child abuse and domestic violence during this time, because work and school was the only safe place these people had. If you are safe in your home, you automatically have more privileges than millions on a normal day. I’ve seen it first hand. That’s another post for another day. (Don’t worry. I got stats for that post too).
***The former advocate in me must tell you, if you are in a dangerous situation in your home, please reach out to your local DV shelter or child abuse hotline. I know that they have ways to keep you safe while still maintaining your health safety in this time. They are NOT closed.***
We are all going through COVID-19 together, yes. But unless we are reaching out a hand to our neighbors, are we really in this together? Unless we are doing our part to stop the spread, are we in this together? Unless we are communicating accurate and timely information, are we in this together? If we are not fully understanding the weight of our words and “jokes”, are we all in this together?
There are politicians, celebrities, and folks just like you and me who are shouting “we’re all in this together!”, while capitalizing on this tragedy (the infamous, horribly tuned Imagine video anyone?) They are making money off the misfortune of society, and/or shouting “just stay home! We’ll be fine!” from their mansions, minimizing the hurt of their peers. I know it’s not that simple. I know it is affecting how people live on a daily basis. If the mindset of “I’m fine so it doesn’t matter” isn’t the epitome of privilege, I don’t know what is.
For those whose normals have been radically altered, while still allowing you to be safe and stable, I’m not asking you to not feel. ALL feelings are valid. Be angry your vacation was canceled. Be upset that you don’t have your normal extra cash. Be frustrated that you’re stuck at home with your family. But when you’re frustrated with your family, remember many people are also leaving hospitals alone and will never have their husband, wife, father, mother, children, etc with them again. But when you’re upset you’re not going to the beach, your lost vacation is someone’s groceries for the next three month. But when you can’t shop or eat where you’d like to, your extra spending money could have paid someone’s gas bill. Mourn it, recognize your privilege, and start helping.
This isn’t suppose to be a guilt trip. Seriously, I get it. There are a lot of people that have lost things that hurt, but do not cause life long damage. Those hurts are valid. My heart breaks for the graduates and brides because those were the two most exciting times in my life. I hate it for my friends and family with birthdays during this time. It is shattering to think of the new moms who are having to go through delivery without their full support system. These are still events that should be celebrated and recognized even though it won’t be “normal”. Celebrations will still happen, and love will still continue. It has been all over social media and in our backyards. These are the things that make being a human magical after all. But we MUST keep each other safe.
It is when seeing these things celebrated that I’m reminded, I am so glad that not all things are decided through statistics. Kindness is not based on statistics. Love is not based on statistics. Faith is not based on statistics. Or, at least, it shouldn’t be.
I find the frustration in me and my love for probability ironic this weekend. If you know me, you’ve heard me say God likes to laugh at me. So He, knowing my comfort found in statistics, opened my eyes this week. I keep thinking, “if God would have told Jesus in the garden the stats of who would turn to him, would Jesus have refused his sacrifice?” If God said “We want to give everyone a chance, but statistically only blank percentage will actually follow you.” Would he have listened?
The more I see people shouting statistics to prove why we should maintain normality, the more I’m convicted. For example, a famous political reporter, went on television and said “the people who are dying are on their last leg anyway”, and people rallied around him.
Imagine if Jesus said “Their sin is far too severe to save. They were on their last leg of redeem-ability anyway”, and walked away from the cross.
It is important that we remember that statistics are not just numbers. We are talking about individual human lives.
Humans spout out the statistics of the “few” who will be affected, when doctors are literally having to make the decision of who is worthy of saving: who gets a ventilator, equipment, and medication, and who is “too far gone”. Doctors are having to go against their ethics and deem the elderly, cancer survivors, mentally and physically handicapped, and immune deficient people as unworthy of life because of their statistical probability to survive the virus. Make no mistake: it’s not just in Italy either. It will be in our own backyard, very soon.
Imagine if Jesus only acted based on statistics. What if when he got on the cross, he had to decide what living persons would be “who gets salvation, and who’s sin is too far gone”?
Tell me: if it were up to your sin statistic to determine your salvation, would Jesus have died to saved you or those you love? If you are comparing what statistic you fall into to those who are less fortunate, to justify why it’s not your problem, are you treating people like Jesus would have? Jesus was perfect. He had no statistics against him, and yet he still sacrificed himself for those deemed unworthy by society.
Make no mistake, Jesus would have and continues to fight hard to advocate for those with high risk statistics, both morally and health wise.
I know Jesus wouldn’t have listened to statistics or decided who was worthy based on their history, because He himself spoke of leaving the 99 to save the one. Right now, we are isolated from the 97%, to save the 3%. By staying at home, we are saying “we want to save as many people as we can from this fate”, just like he did. It is hard. It is frustrating. It seemingly makes no sense. But I much rather do my saving from the comfort of my home than by being tortured on a cross. It is the right thing to do. The beautiful thing about Jesus is he doesn’t care how much sin, or what our sin was, he will still work to save us. If we as Christians want to be like him, shouldn’t we be doing the same? Shouldn’t we be doing whatever we can to provide safety, security, and salvation?
Our world is tough right now. I do not say that lightly. But very few of people ever will have to go through the pain he did on the cross. What we are calling sacrifice is pathetic in comparison.
So, ask yourself. Is staying at home with my family to save 3% of people even close to being physically maimed and tortured to save the entire world? I personally think staying home, respecting one another, and helping those who are in need is the closest we can come to being like Jesus this Easter.
Have a very happy Easter everyone! Thank you for enduring my heavy thoughts.
Help your neighbors, pray for our society, and celebrate the sacrifices that have been made for us in all areas of life.
And of course,
WASH YOUR HANDS AND STAY HOME.